Junge ahead in key mid-Michigan U.S. House race

Republican Paul Junge took the lead from Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet on Tuesday in early returns as they vie for a key, open U.S. House seat representing the Tri-Cities region of mid-Michigan.

Junge had 49% of the vote and McDonald Rivet was pulling 46%, with 5% of the vote counted, according to unofficial results.

More:Here are all the 2024 Michigan election results

Junge of Grand Blanc Township and McDonald Rivet of Bay City are competing for the seat of retiring Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Flint Township. Junge lost to Kildee in 2022 by more than 10 percentage points.

The closely watched contest, which has centered largely on the economy and jobs, could help determine the House majority next year and is rated a tossup by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The 8th District covers Genesee, Saginaw and Bay counties and parts of Midland County.

McDonald Rivet, 54, has framed the choice between her and Junge as “stark.” The first-term state senator and former Bay City commissioner said she’s raised six kids, managed a family budget and cares about the high cost of groceries, while Junge has “relied on his trust fund.”

“I have spent my life doing big things that helped our community, helped our schools and helped the economic stability of families,” she told The Detroit News this fall. “He has been jumping from district to district trying to buy a seat in Congress.”

Junge, 58, a former TV anchor and lawyer by training, is pitching himself as the candidate of change ― a former prosecutor and political outsider who will stand up to Washington elites who have been “selling us out” for 60 years ― an apparent reference to the Kildee family that’s held the Flint-area seat for decades. He’s trying to tie McDonald Rivet to Biden-Harris’ record on the Southern border and the economy.

"Voters feel like the economy isn't working for them. People still feel like they're pinched in their ability to pay for the things they need to pay for, and whatever the crime statistics might be, people feel a little uneasy about safety in their community," Junge told The Detroit News last week.

"They just don't feel like things are as good now as they remember them being three or four years ago. I like to point out the Democrats have been in control of Lansing for the last two-plus years, and they've been in control in Washington. So, if you want change, if you want something different, I am that candidate."

Both parties are targeting the district. Top surrogates visited in recent weeks including House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana and Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, as well as House Democratic Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, who leads the House GOP’s campaign arm.

President Joe Biden would have won the 8th District by 2 percentage points in 2020 over former President Donald Trump under the district's new boundaries. But the district seems to be trending more Republican, with Trump improving his performance there from 2016 to 2020, experts noted.

Libertarian Steve Barcelo of Fenton, US Taxpayers nominee James Allen Little of Flint, Green Party nominee Jim Casha of Ontario and Kathy Goodwin of Dearborn, representing the Working Class Party, were also on the ballot.

Kanvana Caudle, a 53-year-old phlebotomist from Flint, said she voted for McDonald Rivet.

"She's the one with the six kids, right? She just seems so down to earth," Caudle said. "I'd meet her at the bar. ... I'd have beer with her, and I don't even drink beer."

Caudle didn't like what she heard about Junge saying that he'd go along with whatever former President Donald Trump wanted.

Laurie Maccready, 59, of Flint said she backed Junge as part of her straight-Republican ticket. She runs her own business selling bulk food to the federal prisons and food banks.

"I'm a straight Republican conservative, and President Trump supports Paul Junge, so I support Paul Junge," Maccready said. "I support anybody that supports President Trump. I am a Trumper. I want my I want my America back."

Maccready said she believes that Junge will focus on bringing jobs back to Michigan.

"The ads that they put out about him, that he's from California, he's a trust-fund baby ― I hate that kind of sh--," Maccready said.

"You know what? Stick to your facts. Stick to what you're gonna do. He hasn't done any name-calling really. He wants to bring the jobs back, lower inflation. You got to put tariffs on these companies."

Velda Hellan, 60, of Flint was planning to vote for McDonald Rivet, saying she likes what she's seen in her commercials, including her support for abortion rights.

"In the '80s, I came down here with bloody coat hangers to say, 'Dont' let it happen again," Hellan said.

She also said she doesn't like that Junge has spent so much time out of state, saying he's not from Michigan. "I'm born and raised here," Hellan said.

Connie Edwards, a retired sixth-grade teacher, voted for McDonald Rivet, in part because she was endorsed by the state's police union and Kildee, whose family has represented the region in Congress for decades.

"That made a big difference," Edwards said. "I'm going to keep my eye on Rivet."

Junge has not previously held elected office but is making his third bid for Congress after unsuccessfully challenging U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin in 2020 and Kildee in 2022. He is endorsed by Trump.

His priorities in Congress would be securing the Southern border and eliminating regulatory hurdles for oil pipelines. He supports Trump’s plan for mass deportations of undocumented immigrants but said the focus for removal should be on individuals who have committed crimes or any history of violence.

Junge at a recent forum defended his self-funding of his campaign to the tune of nearly $5 million this cycle to date, saying it means there's "no mystery" or hidden dark money donors.

"There is no question of 'Who will he be beholden to?' I am only going to be beholden to the voters of Michigan's 8th District," Junge said.

McDonald Rivet said Junge has all the money to spend because he inherited it and as a result hasn't had to work for the last five years, as he told The Detroit News previously. Junge is a former Trump administration staffer.

If elected, McDonald Rivet would be the first woman to represent Flint and the Tri-Cities in the U.S. House. She has pitched herself as a pragmatic leader who can work with GOP lawmakers to get "real" work done without drama.

She introduced a bill that was enacted to expand the state's Earned Income Tax Credit for the working poor from 6% to 30% of the federal credit. She also got passed a firearm storage bill and introduced a package of bills that seek to make child care more affordable.

McDonald Rivet has a background in education policy, previously serving as executive director of the Michigan Head Start Association and as an education adviser to Democratic former Gov. Jennifer Granholm.

Her priorities in Congress would include restoring the expanded child tax credit that helped cut childhood poverty during the pandemic, codifying abortion rights at the federal level and tackling the cost of prescription drugs ― she wrote a bill to cap drug prices in the Legislature.

Junge has slammed her 2023 vote in committee for $175 million in taxpayer incentives for the controversial battery parts manufacturing plant that China-linked Gotion Inc. is pursuing in the Big Rapids area.

McDonald Rivet has defended the vote and chided Republicans for repeatedly targeting the project and using "scare tactics."

"That investment was $1.4 billion investment of an area of this state that desperately needs jobs. What I can tell you is that there has been a lot of political drama around it, and what I will never do is put politics in front of people's jobs," she said at last month's forum.

Junge has rejected Democratic claims that he would support cuts to Social Security, tax breaks for companies sending jobs to China and a national abortion ban without exceptions for rape and incest.

“All three of those charges are totally false without any foundation in evidence or fact,” Junge said.

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